{"id":1090,"date":"2024-08-06T18:42:21","date_gmt":"2024-08-06T18:42:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/america-project.org\/?p=1090"},"modified":"2024-08-08T11:00:14","modified_gmt":"2024-08-08T11:00:14","slug":"harris-momentum-builds-in-polls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/america-project.org\/index.php\/2024\/08\/06\/harris-momentum-builds-in-polls\/","title":{"rendered":"Harris momentum builds in polls"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"nxs-player-wrapper\" data-react-component=\"VideoPlayer\" data-video_id=\"9928829\" data-post_id=\"4814099\" data-sticky=\"\" data-minimized=\"1\" data-allow_render=\"0\" data-video_params=\"{'\/mcp'\/:'\/LIN'\/,'\/width'\/:'\/100%'\/,'\/height'\/:'\/100%'\/,'\/video'\/:'\/9928829'\/,'\/autoplay'\/:false,'\/expect_preroll'\/:true,'\/pInstance'\/:'\/p1'\/,'\/plugins'\/:{'\/comscore'\/:{'\/clientId'\/:'\/6036439'\/,'\/c3'\/:'\/thehill.com'\/,'\/version'\/:'\/5.2.0'\/,'\/useDerivedMetadata'\/:true,'\/mapping'\/:{'\/c3'\/:'\/thehill.com'\/,'\/ns_st_st'\/:'\/hill'\/,'\/ns_st_pu'\/:'\/Nexstar'\/,'\/ns_st_ge'\/:'\/News,Genre,Politics'\/,'\/c4'\/:'\/vod'\/}},'\/dfp'\/:{'\/adTagUrl'\/:'\/https:\\\/\\\/813c5.v.fwmrm.net\\\/ad\\\/g\\\/1?nw=529349&amp;prof=529349:thehill_web&amp;resp=vmap1&amp;crtp=vast3ap&amp;flag= sltp slcb exvt aeti amcb play emcr fbad&amp;sfid=18518517&amp;afid=388889761&amp;metr=47&amp;caid=9928829&amp;vprn=71242&amp;pvrn=69333&amp;csid=TheHill_news;_fw_site_page=https:\\\/\\\/thehill.com\\\/homenews\\\/feed&amp;primary&amp;pers_cid=0&amp;ad_manager_nonce=[GOOGLE_INSTREAM_VIDEO_NONCE]&amp;hlmeta=homenews&amp;pagetype=feed'\/,'\/isFreewheel'\/:true},'\/segmentCustom'\/:{'\/script'\/:'\/https:\\\/\\\/segment.psg.nexstardigital.net\\\/anvato.js'\/,'\/writeKey'\/:'\/'\/,'\/pluginsLoadingTimeout'\/:12},'\/theHillPlugin'\/:{'\/script'\/:'\/https:\\\/\\\/thehill.com\\\/wp-content\\\/themes\\\/the-hill\\\/client\\\/build\\\/js\\\/player.bundle.min.js?ver=5fb5b8ef76c01328773f'\/,'\/cssFile'\/:'\/https:\\\/\\\/thehill.com\\\/wp-content\\\/themes\\\/the-hill\\\/client\\\/build\\\/css\\\/player.min.css?ver=976dbefcc597c9d648d9'\/}},'\/expectPrerollTimeout'\/:8,'\/accessKey'\/:'\/q261XAmOMdqqRf1p7eCo7IYmO1kyPmMB'\/,'\/token'\/:'\/eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJ2aWQiOiI5OTI4ODI5IiwiaXNzIjoicTI2MVhBbU9NZHFxUmYxcDdlQ283SVltTzFreVBtTUIiLCJleHAiOjE3MjI5NzM4NDl9.z-WgtaJXBn0RtyawoLYkq0lKJPLWkzl345gtayFKppM'\/,'\/nxs'\/:{'\/mp4Url'\/:'\/https:\\\/\\\/tkx.mp.lura.live\\\/rest\\\/v2\\\/mcp\\\/video\\\/9928829?anvack=q261XAmOMdqqRf1p7eCo7IYmO1kyPmMB&amp;token=%7E5yG7eZsFZES%2FMylVb16hXLloGseZvo70MQ%3D%3D'\/,'\/enableFloatingPlayer'\/:true},'\/disableMutedAutoplay'\/:false,'\/recommendations'\/:{'\/items'\/:[{'\/mcpid'\/:'\/9928913'\/,'\/title'\/:'\/The Hill's Headlines \\u2013 August 6, 2024'\/,'\/image'\/:'\/https:\\\/\\\/c104216-fcdn.mp.lura.live\\\/expiretime=2082787200\\\/e737d1e8ec692e04567e32cc3333d4eb376b97865e9b1f8a394f7155c9c1a275\\\/1\\\/938892\\\/pvw_lin\\\/012\\\/952\\\/012952D63D4F39CC5A0EF928418C71AF_7.jpg'\/,'\/token'\/:'\/eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJ2aWQiOiI5OTI4OTEzIiwiaXNzIjoicTI2MVhBbU9NZHFxUmYxcDdlQ283SVltTzFreVBtTUIiLCJleHAiOjE3MjI5NzM4NDl9.kYQkJ3X8YZjRNlwXMI7ZU6IQ0R_6r16MAI333NfItlA'\/,'\/ad_unit_path'\/:'\/'\/},{'\/mcpid'\/:'\/9920884'\/,'\/title'\/:'\/GOP accuses Harris of \\u2018hiding\\u2019 from press. 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Unit'\/,'\/platform'\/:'\/Mobile\\\/Tablet'\/,'\/placement'\/:5,'\/plcmt'\/:2,'\/playbackmethod'\/:2},{'\/location'\/:'\/Video Hero Unit'\/,'\/platform'\/:'\/Desktop'\/,'\/placement'\/:5,'\/plcmt'\/:2,'\/playbackmethod'\/:2},{'\/location'\/:'\/Video Bin'\/,'\/platform'\/:'\/Mobile\\\/Tablet'\/,'\/placement'\/:1,'\/plcmt'\/:1,'\/playbackmethod'\/:2},{'\/location'\/:'\/Video Bin'\/,'\/platform'\/:'\/Desktop'\/,'\/placement'\/:1,'\/plcmt'\/:1,'\/playbackmethod'\/:2},{'\/location'\/:'\/Video Center'\/,'\/platform'\/:'\/Mobile\\\/Tablet'\/,'\/placement'\/:1,'\/plcmt'\/:1,'\/playbackmethod'\/:2},{'\/location'\/:'\/Video Center'\/,'\/platform'\/:'\/Desktop'\/,'\/placement'\/:1,'\/plcmt'\/:1,'\/playbackmethod'\/:2},{'\/location'\/:'\/Lead Video'\/,'\/platform'\/:'\/Mobile\\\/Tablet'\/,'\/placement'\/:5,'\/plcmt'\/:2,'\/playbackmethod'\/:2},{'\/location'\/:'\/Lead Video'\/,'\/platform'\/:'\/Desktop'\/,'\/placement'\/:5,'\/plcmt'\/:2,'\/playbackmethod'\/:2},{'\/location'\/:'\/Livestream Player'\/,'\/platform'\/:'\/Mobile\\\/Tablet'\/,'\/placement'\/:1,'\/plcmt'\/:1,'\/playbackmethod'\/:2},{'\/location'\/:'\/Livestream Player'\/,'\/platform'\/:'\/Desktop'\/,'\/placement'\/:1,'\/plcmt'\/:1,'\/playbackmethod'\/:2},{'\/location'\/:'\/Click to play embed'\/,'\/platform'\/:'\/Desktop'\/,'\/placement'\/:1,'\/plcmt'\/:1,'\/playbackmethod'\/:2},{'\/location'\/:'\/Click to play embed'\/,'\/platform'\/:'\/Mobile\\\/Tablet'\/,'\/placement'\/:1,'\/plcmt'\/:1,'\/playbackmethod'\/:2},{'\/location'\/:'\/Lead Video'\/,'\/platform'\/:'\/Mobile App'\/,'\/placement'\/:5,'\/plcmt'\/:2,'\/playbackmethod'\/:2},{'\/location'\/:'\/Click to play embed'\/,'\/platform'\/:'\/Mobile App'\/,'\/placement'\/:1,'\/plcmt'\/:1,'\/playbackmethod'\/:2},{'\/location'\/:'\/Livestream Player'\/,'\/platform'\/:'\/Mobile App'\/,'\/placement'\/:1,'\/plcmt'\/:1,'\/playbackmethod'\/:2},{'\/location'\/:'\/Video Hero Unit'\/,'\/platform'\/:'\/Mobile App'\/,'\/placement'\/:1,'\/plcmt'\/:2,'\/playbackmethod'\/:2}],'\/share'\/:false}\" data-bob_pixel_url=\"bob.dmpxs.com\" data-is_lead_media=\"0\" data-injected_via=\"feed\" data-is_post=\"1\" data-video_classification=\"[{\"><\/div>\n<p>A presidential race that at one point seemed like it was becoming former President Donald Trump\u2019s to lose increasingly looks like a tossup as Vice President Kamala Harris gains momentum and a new running mate.<\/p>\n<p>The extent to which Harris\u2019s pick of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) helps her is up in the air, but there\u2019s no question the vice president has been riding an upward swing in the polls since President Biden ended his reelection bid late last month and endorsed her.<\/p>\n<p>Harris and Trump are basically tied in the <a href=\"https:\/\/elections2024.thehill.com\/national\/harris-trump-general\/?utm_source=front-page-widget&amp;utm_medium=referral\">national polling average<\/a> tracked by The Hill\/Decision Desk HQ, with Trump winning 47.1 percent in the average of polls, and Harris at 47 percent. Trump had initially been up by more than 6 points when Harris first declared her candidacy following Biden\u2019s decision to leave the race.<\/p>\n<p>The Hill\/Decision Desk HQ model polling average isn\u2019t the only place giving Harris and Democrats new hope, either.<\/p>\n<p>Harris also led Trump in pollster Nate Silver\u2019s electoral forecast for the first time in recent days after Trump had the advantage against first Biden and then Harris for weeks. The vice president\u2019s chance of winning the election also <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/NateSilver538\/status\/1820141312710267135\">surpassed<\/a> Trump\u2019s.<\/p>\n<p>Silver last week <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/campaign\/4807154-nate-silver-presidential-race-toss-up\/\">declared<\/a> the race a \u201ctoss-up,\u201d the same place it is considered now. He had previously seen Trump as a favorite against Biden because of the incumbent\u2019s poorer performance in battleground states even before the debate.<\/p>\n<p>DDHQ has tracked a <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/DecisionDeskHQ\/status\/1820517839150981198\">shift<\/a> in the Democrats\u2019 favor in nine of 10 key states in addition to the national polling. The largest shift in the polling average from before Biden dropped out has been in North Carolina, which shifted from a Trump lead of 10 points to just 3 points.<\/p>\n<p>Democrats have long sought a presidential victory in The Tar Heel State, which they\u2019ve failed to take in a presidential contest since Barack Obama\u2019s narrow victory in 2008. A comeback seemed unlikely as Biden faltered, but North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/campaign\/4810296-cooper-excited-about-flipping-north-carolina-blue-i-got-that-2008-feel\/\">expressed<\/a> optimism on Sunday that Harris is capable of flipping the state.<\/p>\n<p>Margins have also narrowed in other states that are more crucial to Democrats winning the White House, though Trump still leads in most of the states likely to determine the outcome.<\/p>\n<p>Only two polls have been conducted and released in Nevada since Biden dropped out, but together they show Trump with an average lead of 3 points, down from the 9-point lead previously.<\/p>\n<p>Eight polls for Pennsylvania and five polls each from Georgia and Michigan have revealed shifts toward Harris of 2 points, 4 points and 3 points, respectively.<\/p>\n<p>Harris has seen improvements in polling in swing states and nationally.<\/p>\n<p>She led Trump by 1 percentage point nationally and was exactly tied 50-50 in the battleground states in a CBS News\/YouGov <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/campaign\/4810063-donald-trump-kamala-harris-battleground-states-poll\/\">poll<\/a> released Sunday. That poll and others have shown an increase in enthusiasm among Democratic voters, with 85 percent now saying they plan to vote this fall compared to 81 percent last month.<\/p>\n<p>A Morning Consult <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/4811862-kamala-harris-gains-polls\/\">poll<\/a> released Monday showed Harris leading Trump by 4 points, which is the largest lead for the Democratic presidential candidate in almost a year. Harris also led Trump by 5 points among independents and 9 points among voters 18 to 35 years old, a group that Biden had seemingly been underperforming with in polls.<\/p>\n<p>Harris has performed better than Biden in polls that include independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<\/p>\n<p>Trump led Biden on average by varying but small margins in three-way contests that included Kennedy, but Harris has held a narrow 1.5-point <a href=\"https:\/\/elections2024.thehill.com\/national\/harris-trump-rfk-general\/\">lead<\/a> in that scenario in the average from DDHQ and The Hill. FiveThirtyEight\u2019s polling average <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/polls\/president-general\/2024\/national\/\">shows<\/a> her with a similar lead.<\/p>\n<p>All of the polls point to a tight race, suggesting both candidates will have to work hard to turn out their supporters.<\/p>\n<p>After Harris became a candidate, Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/campaign\/4788574-trump-polls-harris-honeymoon-biden-2024\/\">argued<\/a> in a memo that Harris will experience a honeymoon period of positive headlines that will raise her numbers and possibly even put her ahead of Trump but that the change would be temporary.<\/p>\n<p>The question now is if and when that honeymoon will end, and what the numbers will look like as the candidates sprint toward the fall.<\/p>\n<p>Author: Jared Gans<\/p>\n<p>Source: https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/campaign\/4814099-harris-gains-momentum-presidential-race\/<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A presidential race that at one point seemed like it was becoming former President Donald Trump\u2019s to lose increasingly looks like a tossup as Vice President Kamala Harris gains momentum and a new running mate. The extent to which Harris\u2019s pick of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) helps her is up in the air, but&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":1185,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","_EventAllDay":false,"_EventTimezone":"","_EventStartDate":"","_EventEndDate":"","_EventStartDateUTC":"","_EventEndDateUTC":"","_EventShowMap":false,"_EventShowMapLink":false,"_EventURL":"","_EventCost":"","_EventCostDescription":"","_EventCurrencySymbol":"","_EventCurrencyCode":"","_EventCurrencyPosition":"","_EventDateTimeSeparator":"","_EventTimeRangeSeparator":"","_EventOrganizerID":[],"_EventVenueID":[],"_OrganizerEmail":"","_OrganizerPhone":"","_OrganizerWebsite":"","_VenueAddress":"","_VenueCity":"","_VenueCountry":"","_VenueProvince":"","_VenueState":"","_VenueZip":"","_VenuePhone":"","_VenueURL":"","_VenueStateProvince":"","_VenueLat":"","_VenueLng":"","_VenueShowMap":false,"_VenueShowMapLink":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1090","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-elections"],"_wp_page_template":null,"_form":null,"_mail":null,"_mail_2":null,"_messages":null,"_additional_settings":null,"_locale":null,"_hash":null,"_wp_attached_file":null,"_wp_attachment_metadata":null,"_menu_item_type":null,"_menu_item_menu_item_parent":null,"_menu_item_object_id":null,"_menu_item_object":null,"_menu_item_target":null,"_menu_item_classes":null,"_menu_item_xfn":null,"_menu_item_url":null,"_wp_attachment_context":null,"_thumbnail_id":"1185","newscrunch_views":"305","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":"22","_yoast_wpseo_schema_article_type":null,"_wp_attachment_is_custom_background":null,"_wp_desired_post_slug":null,"_customize_restore_dismissed":null,"_edit_last":"1","_edit_lock":"1723114695:1","newscrunch_site_layout":"","newscrunch_page_sidebar":"sidebar-1","newscrunch_page_left_sidebar":"left-sidebar","_wp_trash_meta_status":null,"_wp_trash_meta_time":null,"newscrunch_post_video_embed":"","_custom_header_image_id":"","_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":"4","yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\r\n<title>Harris momentum builds in polls - The America Project<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/america-project.org\/index.php\/2024\/08\/06\/harris-momentum-builds-in-polls\/\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Harris momentum builds in polls - The America Project\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A presidential race that at one point seemed like it was becoming former President Donald Trump\u2019s to lose increasingly looks like a tossup as Vice President Kamala Harris gains momentum and a new running mate. 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